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Explain and derive importance sampling estimators

TeslaMachine Learning Engineer · Technical Screen

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This question evaluates understanding of importance sampling, Monte Carlo estimators, weight normalization, variance behavior, optimal proposal selection, and effective sample size, assessing competency in statistical estimation and Monte Carlo methods.

Explain importance sampling. Derive an estimator for mu = E_p[f(X)] when sampling from a proposal q whose support covers that of p. Show the unnormalized estimator using weights w(x) = p(x) / q(x) and the self-normalized estimator, and discuss bias and variance properties of each. Derive how the variance depends on the choice of q and why an ideal proposal is proportional to |f(x)| p(x). Define and interpret effective sample size (ESS). Provide a concrete numerical example (e.g., estimating an integral or expectation under a target Gaussian using a different Gaussian proposal), include pseudocode, and discuss pitfalls such as weight degeneracy, heavy-tailed proposals, and high-variance tails. Optionally relate importance sampling to off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning and resampling in particle filters.