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Expected Payoff of a Three N-Sided Dice Matching Game

SIG (Susquehanna)Quantitative Trader · Online Assessment

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An expected value question about rolling three fair N-sided dice, with different payoffs when all three match, exactly two match, or all differ. It tests counting the outcome classes correctly for a general number of faces and combining them into one expected payoff, including a variant where the all-different outcome costs money.

You roll three fair $N$-sided dice, with faces numbered 1 through $N$. If all three dice show the same number, you receive $A$ dollars. If exactly two of them show the same number, you receive $B$ dollars. If all three numbers are different, you receive $C$ dollars; in another version of the question you pay $C$ dollars instead. What is the expected payoff of a single roll?

Give the answer as an expression in $N$, $A$, $B$ and $C$ for both versions, then evaluate it for the values you are given. The specific numbers are generated randomly, and each question states the required rounding.

Constraints and Clarifications

  • $N$ is a positive integer, and the three dice are fair and independent.
  • $A$, $B$ and $C$ are nonnegative amounts. The version of the question decides whether the all-different outcome pays $C$ or costs $C$.
  • There is a single roll and no separate entry fee unless the question states one.

Clarifying Questions

  • Does "exactly two the same" exclude the case where all three match?
  • In the version where the all-different outcome costs money, is $C$ the whole loss, or is an entry fee charged as well?
  • Should the answer be rounded only at the end, and to how many decimal places?

Hints

Hint 1

Classify the ordered outcomes: Count the equally likely ordered outcomes that fall into each of the three categories, and confirm that the three counts add up to the total.

Follow-up questions

  • What entry fee would make the game fair?
  • What is the variance of the payoff?
  • With four dice, what is the probability that exactly two show the same number and the other two differ from it and from each other?